Depletion, UV Exposure and Relation between Ozone and Skin Cancer

Beneficiary: Dr. Harry Slaper, Laboratory for Radiation Research, RIVM, Holland

Grant: DKK 200,000

Dr. Harry Slaper, Laboratory for Radiation Research, RIVM, Holland, has developed a unique model, the AMOUR 2.0, for relating ozone depletion scenarios and UV to changes in skin cancer incidence (melanoma, basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)). This model has been used since 2008 as a reference for other researchers in Europe.

The model, however, does not factor in age. Apart from cumulated UV Radiation, age is the major risk factor for the development of Non Melanoma Skin Cancer (NMSC), and an ageing population will contribute to the increasing incidence of NMSCs.

The LEO Foundation has funded a development of the model to also incorporate the effects of population aging in Europe in order to obtain a more precise picture of the projected incidence of NMSC in Europe.

Based on the Dutch Cancer registry and the enhanced model, then, Dr. Slaper has estimated age and gender specific incidence rates, incorporated them into the model as well as UN Population forecasts to forecast the incidence of NMSC in Europe and the contribution of both cumulated UV radiation and age and gender.

The results are expected to play a key role in raising awareness among decision makers in the health care sector on the increasing incidences of non-melanoma skin cancer, an awareness which will also benefit patients as the long-term aim is to increase the political prioritisation of non-melanoma skin cancer.